For the First Time in Decades, Our Data Didn't Predict the White House Winner

By Matt Layton, Senior Vice President of Consumer Analytics

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Our data was right—but reading it got more complicated.

For the first time in 20 years, the reasons people are seeking legal help did not tell us who would win the White House.

2024 Consumer Stress Legal Index anomaly

If you haven’t followed our journey through this election cycle, we’ve been watching the Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) in battleground states in relation to the national index. The CSLI is a gauge of more than 150,000 inquiries each month to our provider attorneys serving more than 4.5 million people  across North America. The index focuses on personal finance issues, from consumer challenges like bill disputes and creditors, to critical issues like bankruptcies and foreclosure. We’ve tracked it since 2002, analyzing more than 35 million consumer requests for legal assistance.

In the past five elections prior to 2024, going back to George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004, when the CSLI in battleground states is above the national index, a Republican has won the presidential election and when battleground stress is below the national level, a Democrat has won. That held true in each and every election. Until now.

2024 was an anomaly. The CSLI was decidedly below the national index in October, a bellwether month. If history repeated itself as it had for two decades, Vice President Kamala Harris was poised to win. That didn’t happen.

Interest rate cut before election stands out

So we’re left evaluating the data for any insights as to what was different in 2024. One thing stands out: an interest rate cut right before the election. Interest rates create a significant economic ripple effect, from boardroom tables to kitchen tables. They dictate what someone can afford, and what they worry about.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half point in September, less than two months before the election. That hasn’t happened so close to an election since 1984, decades before we started tracking our data. So that was a new, dramatic data point that had not affected consumers in any of the past five presidential elections.

In October, we saw stress decline in battleground states across two of the three subindices that inform the CSLI. This was led by the largest decline in the Consumer Finance subindex of 4.4 points, and the Foreclosure subindex a close second with a relief of 3.7 points. The Bankruptcy subindex was essentially flat in battleground states. We saw similar improvements in stress in the national subindices, although at a slower pace.

The Consumer Finance and Foreclosure subindices are the most likely to experience a rapid impact due to interest rate changes. The September rate change was likely felt by consumers in October.

The interest rate cut was not unexpected. The Fed had signaled a likely cut for some time as inflation rates continued to decline toward the Fed’s stated goal of 2%. In fact, many economists anticipated an even greater rate cut.

With declining interest rates, consumers can make choices as to how to manage their finances. They may refinance a mortgage or see variable rates go down. Credit card rates decline making repayment easier. They may choose to invest in their business or buy a car. Regardless of their situation, money matters typically get a little easier if money is cheaper to borrow.

Trend did not hold true

So why have Republicans won when battleground stress is higher than the national average, and Democrats won when it’s lower? And why didn’t that trend hold true in 2024?

I’ll leave that to the pundits to discuss. But I’ll continue to watch our data and report on interesting trends.

Inevitably, the reasons people call for legal help give us insight into what everyday Americans are dealing with, and what might come next in economic reports that lead to policy decisions.

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Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. (“PPLSI”) provides access to legal services offered by a network of provider law firms to PPLSI members through membership-based participation. Neither PPLSI nor its officers, employees or sales associates directly or indirectly provide legal services, representation, or advice. The information made available in this blog is meant to provide general information and is not intended to provide legal advice, render an opinion, or provide a recommendation as to a specific matter.